Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
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Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Socio-economic implications of flood crisis in Pakistan
Sep 22-2010
WAQAS AHMED
Pakistan's worst ever flooding disaster has damaged twenty percent area of the country, which is roughly equal to the size of England. It affected twenty million peoples, intensified the energy crisis and may create fears of social unrest in the near future.
This humanitarian disaster left more than five million people homeless and around ten million in urgent need of humanitarian aid. According to the United Nations, the disaster has affected close to 20 million people, killing 1,600 and leaving 1.2 million homes damaged or destroyed.
It is worth mentioning that most disastrous aspect of the river's floods is not its immediate effects; its after effects are considered much severe than its immediate damages. Earthquakes and tsunamis damage suddenly the human life on earth, but river floods are considered as slow tsunami because they affect the human life more severely when flooding crisis is over. For instance flood along Yangtze River in China in 1931 left 1.4 million people dead by drowning; while ultimately this number had reached 3.7 million because of diseases and starvation.
Apart from the human losses, the worst ever disaster in Pakistan is threatening to disrupt the economy. Though, it is too early to estimate the economic cost of the devastating floods at this stage as waves of floodwaters may bring more destruction.
In comparison of magnitudes of human casualties and economic losses, the worst ever disaster in Pakistan seems a less devastating; its severe problematic aspect is its timing and the socio-economic characteristics of the region affected by the flood. Majority of the poor in Pakistan lives in flood affected areas. Big urban business tycoons or financial houses are not its direct sufferers; it directly hits the areas where majority of the people under the absolute poverty is living.
This was the time when they were expecting to earn their long waiting annual income by sale of cotton, sugarcane and other seasonal crops and they were planning to start the cultivation of wheat in the coming month. The crisis during the holy month of Ramazan and before celebrating Eid-ul-Fitr will further deepen the social and psychological problems in the poor regions of Pakistan.
It is notable that the production and distribution of cotton has a pivotal role in the economy of Pakistan. It is not only a part of economic strategy, but has its social dimensions. Rural population in cotton and sugarcane growing areas prepares its annual schedules of social activities with consideration of expected cash flows. Those cash flows are received twice in a year: after the sale of wheat and cotton crops.
In the rural Pakistan, sale and purchase of assets, date of marriages, social functions and gatherings, home construction, stock of consumable goods, purchase of consumer durables, redemption of loans, funding for education and the purchase of jewellery and clothes are based on the receipts of income from cotton, sugarcane, rice and wheat crops.
When income from crops goes into the pockets of the growers, they transfer it into banks and retailers of urban areas. The demand for consumers' goods in the urban areas increases at the end of crop seasons and income of the traders and manufacturers of durable and consumers' goods increases. This is the basic simultaneity in the domestic economy of Pakistan. Unfortunately, flood damaged this simultaneity.
MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS Several methods and techniques are available in economic literature to quantify the economic losses by flooding. 'HAZUS-MH Flood Loss Estimation Methodology', Loss of Life Estimation Risk Assessment System', GIS-Based distributed techniques', 'Elsevier Mathematical Model', and 'Input-Output method' are included in these techniques. 'HAZUS-MH Flood Loss Estimation Methodology' is based on estimated property damage.
This model estimates shelter needs and direct and indirect economic losses arising from floods. 'Loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment' method estimates economic losses on the basis of loss of life due to flood. 'GIS-based distributed technique for assessing economic losses from flood' is another method to estimate economic losses by floods; this method is more appropriate where industrial assets were damaged because of flood.
'Elsevier Mathematical Model' is used for rapid estimation of economic losses by floods in the urban catchments. 'Input-output method' and the 'Aggregate Macroeconomic Cost Estimation' are the other possible techniques to estimate the economic losses by floods. All these methods have been used to assess the economic losses in different times in various regions.
The basic problem with the available estimation techniques is that they cannot be used at the earlier stage because non-availability of required data. However, an approximation has been attempted to get some idea of the economic impact of present flooding in the country.
Government officials have estimated only public sector infrastructure losses, which range from $10 to $15 billion, which the country will have to spare for rehabilitating and reconstructing of the infrastructure. The donor organisations, including World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and the United Nations, are also measuring the economic impact of the floods. All sources are agreed that Pakistan's economy would likely grow slower than predicted because of the extent of the damage caused by the flooding. According to the Asian Development Bank's estimates, now Pakistan is unlikely to meet its 4.5 percent economic growth rate target.
It is noteworthy that after recording its lowest growth in a decade, GDP had been expected to grow by 4.5 per cent in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2011. Now, it was assessed that Pakistan could achieve about 3.5 percent GDP growth rate this fiscal year. It means a loss of around two billion dollars in terms of GDP. This loss does not include the losses of assets and properties.
Agriculture accounts for 20 percent of Pakistan's gross domestic product (GDP). Flood has damaged crops sown over 1.93 million acres. It estimated crop loss at one billion dollars, saying the full impact on soil erosion and agriculture could only be assessed when the water recedes around mid-September. The country has lost around 20 percent of its cotton crops.
The destruction of cotton, rice, sugarcane, vegetable crops and fish farms are enormous as well. Damage to cotton, rice, sugarcane and maize will hit the export sector, the main source for Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves. Textiles and agriculture account for about three quarters of Pakistan's 21 billion dollar export target this year. The floods have eaten about 20 percent of the cotton crop (14 million bales for this year). It may negatively affect large-scale manufacturing and exports by 25 percent.
The tragedy will strain the government's finances in different ways. Before the crisis, the budget deficit was expected to reach at 4.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but now it could widen to as much as 6 percent to 7 percent of GDP. Obviously to fulfil IMF conditionality in term of Budget Deficit to GDP ratio is not possible in the present situation. The higher fiscal deficit would lead to increase government borrowing. The crisis of external debt will become more serious.
It may be noted that the government is planning to launch convertible bonds to collect money to finance the loss making business entities in public sector. According to the Privatisation Commission's feasibility, after investment of the funds raised by these convertible bonds, the loss making institutions would become profitable.
This strategic move at the time of present crisis gives signals that government is intending to transfer the funds from the previously announced bail out package to the flood relief fund, and the gap will be filled by the issuance of convertible bonds. However, the assumption of transforming the loss making institutions into profit earning centers is questionable. This is against the history of the public sector business entities in Pakistan.
Those institutions have been consuming huge public funds, but their crises have always been becoming more severe. Moreover, the successful launching of those bonds in the present state of affairs is against the economic rationale. Moody's Investors Service, which had expected Pakistan's economic growth to expand to 4.5 percent this fiscal year, may lower its estimate.
An upgrading in Pakistan's credit rating in coming months is unlikely due to the devastation from the floods and its fiscal effects, but the country's current 'B3′ rating "adequately captures the risk" of the likely economic slowdown. A 'B3′ rating is just one stage above the 'C level' while a 'C level' rating indicates sovereign default of the country.
However, positive inflow of foreign direct and portfolio investment and subscription of Pakistan's bond at abroad are the indicators that foreign investors do not have any apprehension about default risk. It is a sign that investors anticipate IMF and US support to prevent any fiscal crisis. Pakistan's equity market index (KSE-100) is in line with other emerging market indexes.
The average magnitude of foreign remittance in recent years is around 10 percent of GDP, however it is strongly expected that it may rise to help the families at home by the expatriate Pakistanis. Before the floods, the country had a healthy foreign exchange reserve of 16.45 billion dollars, though these reserves were achieved by IMF rescue package to save Pakistan from balance of payment crisis.
Losses of public and private assets and properties: There is no doubt that the flooding in Pakistan will inflict serious damage on the present economic growth, pubic finances and socio-economic conditions, but the long-term effects will come from the damages assets and properties. Floods have inflicted widespread damage on infrastructure. In cities, floodwaters have destroyed electricity installations, roads and phone lines.
The shutting down of one major gas field and six power plants will compound the consumer's misery by adding another 1500 MW to the already 4500 MW of power shortfall. The total number of bridges, roads and railway tracks washed away will be calculated when the crisis will be over. The quantification of losses in communication sector is currently impractical. The World Bank, which has announced a 900 million dollar loan for Pakistan, expects the economic impact to be huge, indicating that direct damage was greatest in housing, roads, irrigation and agriculture.
According to an estimate, the reconstruction in northern areas alone could cost 2.5 billion dollars. According to the Director General of the Pakistan Electric Power Company, they faced losses of more than four billion rupees (47 million dollars) due to the floods with some grid stations wiped out, while around 1000 villages in flood-hit districts of southern Punjab are without power, where two grid stations are badly affected. The installations of new poles, wires and feeders are required.
The losses of assets and properties in private sector includes housing, business premises, livestock, dairy farms, fish forms, agriculture lands, crops of cotton, rice, sugarcane, maize, fruits, vegetables, domestic appliances, installations, furniture, fixtures and uncountable domestic assets and consumer durables.
Effects on poverty and regional imbalances: No financial compensation is possible for these great private losses. Even no mechanism is possible to verify and quantify these private losses. Such losses have a long-term social cost. They may change the economic ranking of the families which will create social and economic complication and restructuring in the society.
The huge economic losses can lead the massive unemployment, hyper-inflation and social unrest. The huge loss of food items and livestock will lead to higher inflation. Prices of vegetables, fruits, cloth, milk and meet can be accelerated. The floods are likely to push up food prices and transportation costs for other goods, so further increase in inflation is expected. It is an important aspect that reconstruction activities will lead the unusual increase in the cost of construction materials including steel, cement and other relevant accessories.
It is also an important aspect of the present crisis that this may further enhance the regional imbalances, because this damaged the economy of those regions which are already in underdeveloped and belong to economically depressed areas. The losses of income and business assets are the basic cause of unemployment, while unemployment along with inflation may add further poverty in the region where majority of poor is residing.
If policy measures are not taken, the enhancing poverty will not be limited up to the flood affected areas it will be transformed ultimately to the urban centers, because inflation led by the shortage of food items and mobility of peoples in search of employment will affect the entire country.
Effects on charity institutions and urban poverty: In the last, two important implications of present crisis are considerable. Fairly a large number of urban poor, needy persons and white collars wait for the holy month of Ramazan on the hope of their help by the affluent peoples in the form of charity and Zakat. Their entire annual activities are based on the inflow of funds during this month. Many humanitarian and welfare organisations and NGOs expect the extraordinary jump in their collection of funds for charitable purposes.
It is very much likely that their expectations will be badly hit at this stage of abnormality, particularly when accelerating inflation and shrinking in economic activities badly damaged the economic status of a large number of urban households. This situation may further deepen the crisis and social unrest.
The justifiable utilisation and genuine transfer of the funds collected from the general public in the name of flood affected peoples is another important concern. Thousands of the political and non-political groups are busy in collection of cash and goods for flood affected peoples in every town and street. There is no possibility to create transparency in the collection and distribution of those public funds.
Helping the needy peoples by own pockets is not questionable, but utilisation and transfer of those funds which have been collected from general public must be questionable. They must be audited. Particularly, transparency and audit is required when big political parties, large NGOs, trade organisations, and business associations are competing and claiming for their role in human welfare activities. Their certified rankings may lead a positive and transparent environment.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Lewis Model of Unlimited Labor Supply
Classical Development Theories
Structural change models
It is basically a two sector growth model that explains the process of transformation from a traditional subsistence agriculture sector to a modern, urbanized industrial sector. It employs the tools of neoclassical price and resource allocation theory and modern econometrics to describe how this transformation process takes place.
Lewis theory of development:
Lewis two-sector model became the general theory of the development process in surplus labor Third World during 1960s and 1970s. In this model the underdeveloped economy consists of two sectors, a traditional overpopulated rural subsistence sector characterized by zero marginal labor productivity, and a high productivity modern urban industrial sector into which surplus labor from subsistence sector is gradually transferred.
The model primarily focuses both on the process of labor transfer and the growth of output and employment in the modern sector. Both labor transfer and modern sector employment growth are brought about by output expansion in this sector. The speed with which this expansion occurs is determined by the rate of industrial investment and capital accumulation in the modern sector. Such investments are made possible by the excess of modern sector profits over wages on the assumption that capitalists reinvest all of their profits. Moreover, the level of wages in the urban industrial sector is assumed to be constant. Lewis assumed that urban wages should be at least 30% higher than average rural income to induce workers to migrate from their home areas to urban centres. At constant urban wage, the supply curve of rural labor to the modern sector is considered to be unlimited or perfectly elastic.
Source: Todaro:2002:P.118
The upper right diagram shows total output of agriculture/food (TPA), which is determined by the changes in the amount of only variable input, labor (LA),
given a fixed quantity of capital KA, and unchanging traditional technology, tA.
In the lower right diagram, we have average and marginal product of labor curves, which are derived from the total product curve shown above.
Lewis makes two assumptions about the traditional sector.
First, there is surplus labor in the sense that marginal productivity of labor is zero, and second, all rural workers share equally in the output so that rural real wage is determined by the average and not by the marginal product of labor. Assume that there are LA agricultural workers (in millions) producing TPA food, which is shared equally as WA food per person (this is the average product, which is equal to TPA/LA). The marginal product of these LA workers is zero, as shown in the bottom diagram; hence the surplus labor assumption applies to all workers in excess of LA (note the horizontal TPA curve beyond LA workers in the upper right diagram).
The upper left diagram
shows the total product curves for the modern, industrial sector. Once again, output of manufactured goods (TPM) is a function of only one variable labor input (LM) for a given Capital (KM) and Technology (tM).
On the horizontal axis, the quantity of labor employed to produce an output TPM1 with capital KM1 is expressed in thousands of urban workers L1. In Lewis model, the modern sector capital stock is allowed to increase from KM1 to KM2 to KM3.as a result of the reinvestment of profits by industrial capitalists. This will cause the total product curves to shift upward from TPM(KM1) to TPM(KM2) to TPM(KM3).
The process that will generate profits for reinvestment and growth is illustrated in the lower left diagram.
Here we have modern sector marginal labor product curves derived from the TPM curves of the upper left diagram. Under the assumption of perfectly competitive labor markets in the modern sector, these marginal product of labor curves are in fact the actual demand curves for labor.
WA in the lower left diagram represents the average level of real subsistence income in the traditional rural sector. WM is therefore the real wage in the modern capitalist sector. At this wage, the supply of rural labor is assumed to be unlimited or perfectly elastic as shown by the horizontal labor supply curve WMSL. In other words, Lewis assumes that at urban wage WM above rural average income WA, modern sector employers can hire as many surplus rural workers as they want without fear of rising wages.
Given a fixed supply of capital KM1 in the initial stage of modern-sector growth, the demand curve for labor is determined by labor's declining marginal product and is shown by the negatively sloped curve D1(KM1). Because profit-maximizing modern-sector employers are assumed to hire laborers to the point where their marginal physical product is equal to the real wage (the point F of intersection between the labor demand and supply curves), total modern-sector employment will be equal to L1. Total modern sector output (TPM1) would be given by the area OD1FL1 including OWMFL1 as wages and WMD1F as profits.
Because Lewis assumes that all profits are reinvested, the total capital stock in the modern sector will rise from KM1 to KM2. This larger capital stock causes the total product curve of the modern sector to shift from TPM(KM1) to TPM(KM2), which in turn induces a rise in the marginal product demand curve for labor from D1(KM1) to D2(KM2). A new equilibrium modern-sector employment level will be established at point G with L2 workers now employed. Total output rises to TPM2 or OD2GL2 and total wages and profits increase to OWMGL2 and WMD2G, respectively. Once again these larger profits (WMD2G) are reinvested, increasing the total capital stock to KM3, shifting the total product and labor demand curves to TPM(KM3) and D3(KM3), respectively, and raising the level of modern sector employment to L3.
This process of modern-sector self-sustaining growth and employment expansion is assumed to continue until all surplus rural labor is absorbed in the new industrial sector. Thereafter, additional workers can be withdrawn from agriculture sector only at a higher cost of lost food production, because the declining labor-to-land ratio means that the marginal product of rural labor is no longer zero. Thus the labor supply curve becomes positively sloped as modern-sector wages and employment continue to grow. The structural transformation of the economy will have taken place, with the balance of economic activity shifting from traditional rural agriculture to modern urban industry.
Critique of Lewis model:
Following assumptions of Lewis model do not fit with the institutional and economic realities of most contemporary developing countries:
- The model implicitly assumes that the rate of labor transfer and employment creation in the modern sector is proportional to the rate of modern-sector capital accumulation.
The faster the rate of capital accumulation, the higher the growth rate of modern sector and the faster the rate of new job creation. But what if capitalist's profits are reinvested in more sophisticated labor-saving capital equipment rather than just duplication the existing capital as is implicitly assumed in the Lewis model?
Source: Todaro:2002:P.120
In such case labor demand curves do not shift uniformly outward but in fact cross. Demand curve D2(KM2) has a greater negative slope than D1(KM1) to reflect the fact that addition to the capital stock embody labor-saving technical progress, i.e. KM2 technology requires much less labor per unit of output than KM1 technology does. We see that even though total output has grown substantially, total wages and employment remain unchanged. All extra ouput accrues to capitalists in the form of profits.
- Not all profits of modern sector are reinvested in the contemporary developing countries. A part of these profits is sent abroad as "capital flight" and invested in secured markets.
- The assumption of surplus rural labor and full employment in urban areas is not real. True, there are both seasonal and geographic exceptions to this rule, but by and large, development economists today agree that the assumption of surplus rural labor is generally not valid
- The assumption of competitive modern-sector labor market that guarantees the continued existence of constant real urban wages up to the point where the supply of rural surplus labor exhaust, is not valid for developing countries. Prior to 1980s almost all developing countries witnessed rising urban wages over time, even in the presence of unemployment and low or zero marginal productivity in agriculture. Institutional factors like union bargaining power, civil service wage scales, and MNC hiring practices tend to negate competitive forces in modern-sector labor market of developing countries.
Structural change and pattern of development:
According to the approach of "patterns of development and structural changes" economic, industrial and institutional structures of a developing economy is transformed over time to permit new industries to replace traditional agriculture as the engine of economic growth. (Kuznet: 1971)
- In contrast to Rostow/Lewis models, increased saving and investments are perceived as necessary but not sufficient conditions for economic growth.
- In addition to capital accumulation, both physical and human, a set of interrelated changes in the economic structure of the country is required. These structural changes involve all economic functions including transformation of production and changes in the composition of consumer demand, international trade and resource se as well as changes in socioeconomic factors including urbanization and growth and distribution of population.
- Empirical researchers emphasize both domestic and international constraints on development. The domestic include economic constraints like resource endowment, physical and population size and institutional constraints like government policies and objectives. International constraints include access to external capital, technology and international trade. By removing international constraints developing countries can develop their economies faster than that achieved by the industrialized countries during the early period of their economic development. Thus, instead of earlier stages model, the structural change model recognizes the fact that the developing countries are part of a highly integrated international economic system.
- The empirical studies of Chenery and others on developing countries (cross country/time series) identified several features of development process including a shift agriculture to industrial production, steady accumulation of capital, change in consumer demand from food to diverse manufactured products, growth of cities and urban industries, decline in family size, etc.
Conclusions:
- The major hypothesis of the structural change model is that the development is an identifiable process of growth and change having similar features across countries.
- The model does recognizes differences among countries in the pace and pattern of development.
Factors influencing development process include a country's resources and its size, government policies and objectives, availability of foreign capital and technology, and international trade.
- However, this approach runs the risk of leading practitioners to draw wrong conclusions about causality. For example by observing developed countries pattern of development such as decline of the share of labor force in agriculture over time, the policy makers in developing countries have neglected the problem of unemployment. Similarly, by considering the importance of higher education the role of basic education has been neglected in many cases. Keeping in view both internal and external factors of development the structural change analysts emphasizes on a "correct mix of economic policies."
Source: Development Economics by Todaro
WAQAS AHMED
M.Sc Economics
UOG
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Poverty and MDGs WAQAS AHMED
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are the centerpiece of development efforts of the Government of Pakistan. The 18 global targets and 48 indicators adopted in 2000 have been translated into 16 national targets and 37 indicators keeping in view Pakistan's specific conditions, priorities, data availability and institutional capacity.
Specifically, the MDGs have been incorporated into the Government's two important macroeconomic frameworks including the Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF), which covers a five-year period from 2005-2010 and the Government's key planning document on development. The other is the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) which is a framework for social and economic policies. To date, however, sufficient progress has only been made on about half of the targeted indicators while others lag behind.
Pakistan faces three key challenges in making progress on the MDGs. First, there is growing evidence of widening disparities in social indicators, implying that most progress has by-passed the segments of society that need the most support. Second, spiked inflation, especially due to rising commodity prices, is threatening to undermine the recent progress observed in reducing poverty. Third, the sharply increased liabilities on the public account and the resulting growing deficits are putting a squeeze on the available fiscal space for pro-poor public spending targeting the attainment of MDGs.
The MDG target of cutting in half the proportion of people in the developing world living on less than $1 a day by 2015 remain within reach for the world as a whole. However, this achievement will be largely the result of extraordinary success in Asia, mostly East Asia. In contrast, little progress has been made in reducing extreme poverty in sub-Saharan Africa.
New estimates released by the World Bank in August 2008 show that the number of people in the developing world living in extreme poverty may be higher than previously thought. Using a new threshold for extreme poverty now set at $1.25 a day (purchasing power parity) in 2005 prices, the Bank concludes that there were 1.4 billion people living in extreme poverty in 2005.
Based on these data, poverty rates are estimated to have fallen from 52 per cent in 1981 to 42 per cent in 1990 and to 26 per cent in 2005. Over a 25-year period, the poverty rate in East Asia fell from nearly 80 per cent to under 20 per cent. In sub-Saharan Africa, the poverty rate remained constant at around 50 per cent.
Even though the proportion of people worldwide suffering from malnutrition and hunger has fallen since the early 1990s, the number of people lacking access to food has risen. With recent increases in food prices, it is estimated that 1 billion people will go hungry, while another 2 billion will be undernourished.
Eastern Asia, notably China, was successful in more than halving the proportion of underweight children between 1990 and 2006. In contrast, and despite improvements since 1990, almost 50 per cent of children are underweight in Southern Asia. This region alone accounts for more than half the world's undernourished children, while the majority of countries making the least progress in reducing child malnutrition are in sub-Saharan Africa.
For millions in the world today, jobs provide little relief from poverty because pay is so low. Employed persons living in a household where earnings are less than $1 per person a day are considered the 'working poor'. In sub-Saharan Africa, over half the workers fall into this category.
Between 55 and 75 per cent of the working age population is employed in most regions. The two exceptions are Northern Africa and Western Asia, partly because the employment-to-population ratio for women is less than 25 per cent (more than 40 percentage points below the ratio for men). For women to remain outside the labour force is often not a choice. More women in these regions would opt to work if it were socially acceptable, if more jobs were created for women and if institutions were in place to help them combine work and family responsibilities.
Rapid urbanization has altered the distribution and face of poverty. Slum dwellers, who account for 1 billion of the worldwide urban population, die earlier, experience more hunger and disease, receive less education and have fewer job opportunities.
Likewise, the encouraging trend in the eradication of hunger since the early 1990s was reversed in 2008, largely due to higher food prices. The prevalence of hunger in the developing regions is now on the rise, from 16 per cent in 2006 to 17 per cent in 2008. A decrease in international food prices in the second half of 2008 has failed to translate into more affordable food for most people around the world.
Microfinance has helped many of the world's poor to increase their incomes through self-employment and empowerment. With access to small loans and other financial services such as savings and micro-insurance, microfinance clients, mostly women, have formed micro-enterprises that generate income. Through microfinance, the poor are able to establish support networks for improving health and education in their communities. Microfinance also helps them meet unexpected needs arising from medical emergencies or a death in the family. Grameen Bank of Bangladesh is one of the world's most successful microfinance institutions. From a starting base of 10 members in 1976, Grameen Bank today has over 7.5 million borrowers, 65 per cent of whom have managed to lift themselves out of extreme poverty.
Pakistan's Progress Towards Attaining the MDGs (Source: MDGR)
Goals/Targets | Indicators | 1990/91 | 2001/02 | 2002/03 | 2005/06 PRSP Targets | 2001 Pers-pective Plan Targets | 2015 MDG Targets | |
Target 1: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day | Proportion of population below the calorie based food plus non-food poverty line | 26.1 | 32.1 | -- | 28 | 15 | 13 | |
Target 2: Halve between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger | Prevalence of underweight children (under 5 years of age) | 40 | 37 | -- | 33 | 28 | <20 | |
Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption | n/a | 30 | -- | n/a | 15 | -- | ||
Target 3: Ensure that by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling | Net primary enrolment ratio (%) | 46 | 51 | -- | 58 | 91 | 100 | |
Completion/survival rate to grade 5 (%) | Approx 50 | 68 | 72 | 79 | n/a | 100 | ||
Adult literacy rate (%) | 36.3 | 50.5 | 54 | 59.5 | 78 | 88 | ||
Target 4: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005 and to all levels of education no later than 2015. | Gender parity index (GPI) for primary education | 0.51 | 0.57 | 0.57 | n/a | n/a | 1.00 | |
Gender parity index (GPI) for secondary education | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.73 | n/a | 0.94 | ||
Gender parity index (GPI) for tertiary education | 0.46 | 0.78 | 0.78 | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | ||
Youth literacy GPI | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 1.00 | ||
Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector | 8.00 | 9.00 | -- | 9.00 | n/a | 14.00 | ||
Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector | 17.00 | 16.00 | -- | 16.00 | n/a | 17.00 | ||
Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament (national assembly) | 0.90 | 21 | 21 | -- | -- | -- | ||
Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament (senate) | 1.00 | 17 | 17 | -- | -- | -- | ||
Target 5: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate | Under-five mortality rate | 140 | 105 | 103 | 80 | 65 | 52 | |
Infant mortality rate | 120 | 77 | 75 | 63 | 50 | 40 | ||
Proportion of fully immunised children 12-23 months | 25 | 53 | 55 | 82 | 90 | >90 | ||
Proportion of under 1 year children immunised against measles | -- | 57 | 57 | 65 | 90 | >90 | ||
Prevalence of under weight children (under 5 years of age) | 40 | 37 | 40 | 33 | 28 | <20 | ||
Proportion of children under five who suffered from diarrhoea in the last 30 days and received ORT | n/a | 45 | 40 | 40 | 20 | <10 | ||
Lady Health Workers' coverage of target population | n/a | 33.60 | 55 | 83.00 | 92.20 | 100 | ||
Target 6: Reduce by three-quarters, between 1900 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio | Maternal mortality ratio | 550 | 350 | 350-400 | 300-350 | 180 | 140 | |
Proportion of births attended by skilled birth attendants | 18 | 40 | 40 | 75 | 90 | >90 | ||
Contraceptive prevalence rate | 12 | 30 | 33 | 41.7 | 53 | 55 | ||
Total fertility rate | 5.40 | 4.10 | 3.9 | 3.75 | 2.50 | 2.10 | ||
Proportion of women 15-49 years who had given birth during last 3 years, who had attended at least one antenatal care consultation | 15 | 31 | 35 | 50 | 75 | 100 | ||
Target 7: Have halted by 2015, and begun to reverse, the spread of HIV/AIDS | HIV prevalence among 15-24 year old pregnant women | n/a | Baseline required | n/a | n/a | n/a | Baseline to be reduced by 50% | |
HIV prevalence among vulnerable group (e.g., active sexual workers) | n/a | Baseline required | n/a | n/a | n/a | Baseline to be reduced by 50% | ||
Target 8: Have halted by 2015, and begun to reverse, the incidence of malaria and other major diseases | Proportion of population in malaria risk areas using effective malaria prevention and treatment measures | n/a | 20 | 25 | 25 | -- | 75 | |
Incidence of tuberculosis per 100,000 population | n/a | 177 | 177 | 133 | -- | 45 | ||
Proportion of TB cases detected and cured under DOTS (Direct Observed Treatment Short Course) | Nil | 25 | 27 | 70 | -- | 85 | ||
Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs and reverse the loss of environmental resources | Forest cover including state-owned and private forest and farmlands | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5 | 5.70 | 6 | |
Land area protected for the conservation of wildlife | 9.10 | 11.25 | 11.26 | 11.30 | 11.50 | 12.00 | ||
GDP (at constant factor cost) per unit energy use as a proxy for energy efficiency | 26,471 | 27,047 | 27,141 | 27,300 | 27,650 | 28,000 | ||
No. of vehicles using CNG fuel | 500 | 280,000 | 370,000 | -- | 812,000 | 920,000 | ||
Suplhur content in high speed diesel (as a proxy for ambient air quality) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -- | -- | 0.5 - 0.25 | ||
Target 10: Halve by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water | Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved (safe) water source (Urban) | 52 | 85 | -- | 90 | 95 | ||
Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved (safe) water source (Rural) | 52 | 43 | -- | 75 | 80 | |||
Target 11: Have achieved, by 2020, a significant improvement in the lives of slum dwellers | Proportion of population with access to sanitation | n/a | 40 | 41 | 55 | 75 | 100 | |
Proportion of katchi abadis regularised | n/a | 50 | 51 | 60 | 75 | 100 | ||
Goals/Targets | Indicators | 1990/91 | 2001/02 | 2002/03 | 2005/06 PRSP Targets | 2001 Pers-pective Plan Targets | 2015 MDG Targets | |
Poverty and Progress towards the Millennium Development Goals in Pakistan :
- ACHIEVE UNIVERSAL EDUCATION (Off track, but recent progress)
Primary school enrolment rates have improved recently. Due to this poverty will declines as the education level will improve in the country.
- PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY (Off track, but good recent progress)
Progress has been made since 1990, but gender inequality remains high. The ratio of female to male primary enrolment rates increased from under 0.68 in 1991 to 0.85 in 2005/06.
- REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY (Off track despite steady progress)
Progress has been made towards the target of reducing under-five mortality rates by two thirds. The rate of change will need to be accelerated to meet the target.
- IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH (Off track)
Some progress has been made towards the standard proxy indicators, although overall levels remain low.
- COMBAT HIV/AIDS, MALARIA & OTHER DISEASES v(Mixed progress)
Pakistan has the 6th
highest burden of TB disease in the world; although DOTS case detection and cure rates have improved significantly since 2000, and are on track to meet WHO targets for 2010.
• Polio is almost eradicated although a few isolated cases remain; 39 cases were reported in 2006, up slightly from 28 in 2005. There are around half a million cases of malaria a year.
• HIV/AIDS prevalence is low among the general population (<0.05%).
- ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY (On track)
Despite a small decline in access to safe water over recent years, Pakistan is still on track to halve the population without access to improved water and sanitation by 2015.
• In 2005/06 66% had access to a tap or hand water pump and 60% had access to a flush toilet.
• The broader picture on ensuring environmental sustainability is mixed. Various environmental initiatives were started in the 1990s but came after years of environmental neglect.
- GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP (On track)
The strength of the relationship between International Partners and Pakistan has varied over the last decade. However over the last few years development assistance has been increasing and development agencies are strengthening their presence in Pakistan.
References:
- MDG_Report_2009
- ADP Report on Poverty
- UNDP Factsheet of Pakistan
- MDGs Progress Report by Pakistan
From Different News Published by UNDP
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